North Texas Weather Center News

ATLANTIC TROPICS: New Invest 90L COULD Become a Tropical Storm...

7/24/2021

*ARTICLE UPDATED 7/24/21 @ 1:00PM*

Invest 90L has a *60%* chance of developing within the next 48-hours. Invest 90L is starting to gain some strength as it hovers over warm Atlantic Ocean waters. The National Hurricane Center is giving this invest a 60% chance of developing into either a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance over the next 5 days.

DCW's Prediction - Chance of Development: 75% (Likely a Depression or Weak Storm)

The computer models have had some agreement to whether this tropical disturbance will impact the USA or not. A few of the computer models bring this invest out to sea, while some steer it right towards the East Coast (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina). We should have a better understanding of where this invest will head and develop within the next 24 hours. Ultimately, what happens then will determine whether the East Coast has to brace for a potential depression or storm, or if the storm moves out to sea and avoids land.

At this point, I am forecasting that this invest will develop into a depression or a weak storm before making landfall in Florida. I doubt that this invest will become strong enough to make any significant impacts to anyone. Worst comes to worst, gusty winds up to 40-45 MPH and storm surge would be possible near where it makes landfall.

It is unlikely that this will become much stronger than a weak tropical storm, but here is the latest intensity guide issued by some computer models. You can see, most of the computer models are keeping this invest within reason as a tropical depression or storm. Though it can't be ruled out that this could become stronger than just a storm, there is not enough evidence to prove that the invest would gain enough strength.

Below are the main computer models and where they are tracking the storm. Interestingly enough, some bring the invest right through Florida and then towards the Western portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Shear should remain strong enough in the Gulf of Mexico and the Saharan Dust should positively impact the invest from becoming strong in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is unlikely that this will become much stronger than a weak tropical storm, but here is the latest intensity guide issued by some computer models. You can see, most of the computer models are keeping this invest within reason as a tropical depression or storm. Though it can't be ruled out that this could become stronger than just a storm, there is not enough evidence to prove that the invest would gain enough strength. (Therefore, you can just ignore the NNIC model)

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ATLANTIC TROPICS: New Invest 90L COULD Become a Tropical Storm...

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