Low Severe Storm Risk in DFW Tomorrow
An overall low risk of severe weather has presented itself for tomorrow in DFW.
DFW has been on average for severe weather events in the Fall months. We haven't seen very many. The last one was around Thanksgiving, which an EF-2 Tornado touched down in Arlington, TX, and was on the ground for 8 minutes. This severe weather event also had many Severe T-Storm Warnings attached to it.
Tomorrow (Friday), there is a very low risk of severe weather. Short-term computer models, like the HRRR, NAM3k, etc, have shown low instability readings, as well as a very low tornado parameter reading. What does this mean?
Marginal severe weather is a possibility tomorrow evening. Most of DFW won't see anything, but there is about a 30% chance for DFW to see precipitation during the afternoon and evening. If you see an isolated thunderstorm, you would likely see nothing more than a few rumbles of thunder, BUT, there are a few low risks to keep in mind for tomorrow. Read those risks below.
Flooding - Very Low
Damaging Winds (60+ MPH) - Very Low
Gusty Winds (40-55 MPH) - Low
Severe Hail (1"+ Diameter) - Very Low
Small Hail (<1" Diameter) - Low-Mod
Brief Weak Tornado - Very Low
The rain will likely accumulate to no more than an inch of rain. Damaging winds will likely not be much of a threat. Hail may be slightly more likely due to how temperatures will be in the 50s for most of us. A brief spin up cannot be ruled out, but a tornado is very unlikely tomorrow.
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