Severe Weather to Threaten North Texas Tomorrow - Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Isolated Tornado Possible
Our next chance of showers and storms arrives with an approaching upper level disturbance currently sitting over the Four Corners region. Low level moisture advection (Moisture being brought north from the Gulf of Mexico) will begin overnight tonight as the disturbance becomes closer in proximity to our region.
The big story is the severe weather potential for tomorrow. Here's a look at the latest outlook given by the Storm Prediction Center.
The upper level disturbance is set to arrive Thursday morning. A surface low will be located across far West Texas, and will track east throughout the day and into the early afternoon hours. Winds out of the south will propel moisture into North Texas during the afternoon. That moisture, which is needed for thunderstorms, will reach the low 60s along and East of I-35 during the afternoon.
During the afternoon, temperatures will warm well into the 70s and a few low 80s for North Texas. A few isolated showers or a storm cannot be ruled out between 1pm to 5pm, but this will not be apart of the severe weather threat that we see during the evening. A strong cap will exist for most of the afternoon before weakening during the early evening. As the main disturbance moves overhead late Thursday afternoon, scattered storms are expected to develop along the dryline with favorable instability in the forecast. Those storms are forecasted to develop between 6pm to 10pm in DFW.
A few instances of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with initial storms that develop off of the dryline, especially along and North of I-20 and East of I-35 where ingredients are available. A brief and weak tornado cannot be ruled out, but low level shear will not be as available as it was during last Monday's severe weather event. The cold front should overtake the dryline late evening, with storms forming into a broken line as the disturbance tracks east of the metroplex.
Hail up to the size of half dollars and damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH will be our main concerns. Again, a brief and weak tornado cannot be ruled out. Make sure you have a plan in place and take the proper precautions before storms develop tomorrow evening.
Breezy northwesterly winds take over behind the cold front, with lows in the mid 40's.
Lastly, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for Thursday by the National Weather Service due to the dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. Low relative humidity and gusty winds will serve as favorable dry fuels, so we ask that you avoid burning if you along and west of US-281.
As always, make sure to stay updated with NTXWC on Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube for the latest severe weather information.
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