A tornado outbreak is likely for many Texas Residents on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put a large chunk of Texas under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather tomorrow. An enhanced risk is level 3 of 5 on the SPC's scale. The main threats that are expected tomorrow will be large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and several tornadoes, which a few tornadoes may be strong.
Along with the severe weather potential, heavy rainfall will be likely for the majority of North Texas. Several inches of rain will be possible, with the potential for as much as 3 inches of rain in North Texas.
According to our Severe Weather Center & Storm Prediction Center, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather exists South of I-20. This area has the greatest chance for very large hail and a few strong tornadoes. At this time, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) includes the rest of the DFW metroplex and almost all of North Texas. The worst of the severe weather will likely stay South of DFW, but Dallas-Fort Worth could very well see any of the threats listed above.
Large to very large hail is possible across all of North Texas. The best chance for hail up to the size of tennis balls will be closer to areas like Cleburne, Stephenville, Waco, and anywhere in the hatched area. Here in DFW, we can expect up to golf ball sized hail in isolated locations.
The tornado threat is forecasted to be the highest in Eastern-Central TX. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be across areas like Waco and College Station, but a strong tornado cannot be ruled out closer to Southern DFW. Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather alerts tomorrow as everyone should be aware of the severe weather potential.
Here is NTXWC's Probabilities for Tornadoes heading into Monday:
(This is for anywhere in the severe weather potential region, not just North Texas)
Probability of 2+ Tornadoes: 95%+
Probability of 5+ Tornadoes: 60%
Probability of 10+ Tornadoes: 10%
Probability of a Tornado Outbreak: 50%
Probability of 1 Strong Tornado (EF-3+): 60%
Storms are currently forecasted to happen late in the day Monday and during the evening hours. The best chance for storms in DFW will be from 4pm to 10pm. Luckily, this will not be an overnight event.
Make sure to have a safety plan in place tomorrow in case you are under a tornado warning. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions. Cover your vehicles to keep hail damage to a minimum. Bring in trash and recycling bins, plants, and any loose furniture inside to prevent those items from being damaged by damaging winds.
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