A tornado outbreak has become increasingly likely for many Texas Residents on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday. An enhanced risk is level 3 of 5 on the SPC's scale. This is the highest probability that the SPC can issue 4 or more days out. It is extremely rare that the SPC issues an Enhanced (30%) probability any further than 3 days out, especially in March. The worst threat area seems to be SE of DFW, which may be promising to those who live in the metroplex.
According to our Severe Weather Center & Storm Prediction Center, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather exists in Southeastern DFW. This includes parts of Dallas county. This probability is expected to increase and include more of DFW in further SPC outlooks. At this time, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) includes the rest of the DFW metroplex and areas East of US-281. The main threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and several tornadoes. The SPC outlines that a few strong tornadoes may also be possible due to very strong low-level shear.
Storm chasers are beginning to make their preparations ahead of Monday. Many forecasters believe that this could be the worst severe weather event by far this year. Crazy enough, this will be happening on the first day of spring, which is home to many horrific tornado outbreaks during the mid portions of the 20th century. That includes the March 21, 1932 tornado outbreak. That outbreak recorded at least 38 tornadoes and hundreds of injures in the deep south.
The tornado threat is forecasted to be the highest in Eastern-Central TX. Here in North Texas, we can expect a tornado threat, especially South of I-20.
Here is NTXWC's Probabilities for Tornadoes heading into Monday:
(This is for anywhere in the severe weather potential region, not just North Texas)
Probability of 2+ Tornadoes: 95%+
Probability of 5+ Tornadoes: 50%
Probability of 10+ Tornadoes: 20%
Probability of a Tornado Outbreak: 40%
Probability of 1 Strong Tornado (EF-3+): 40%
Storms are currently forecasted to happen late in the day Monday and during the evening hours. We will make adjustments to our forecast and provide specific timing as we get closer to Monday. Stay tuned as we provide you more details through the weekend.
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