Severe storms are uncommon but definitely possible during December, and we have a shot at some this upcoming Friday.
Severe storms caused a lot of damage just before Thanksgiving. The storms spawned an EF-2 Tornado in Arlington, which lasted 8 minutes and caused massive damage to the area. Now, we face another threat of tornadoes. Luckily, this threat seems a lot lower than the past severe weather event we had a couple weeks ago.
Sunny skies are expected this Thursday, however, that will change pretty quickly as soon after the sun sets. Showers and storms are expected to form into a line to the West of DFW. Showers and storms could arrive to DFW from anywhere between 2AM and 10AM. The showers and storms could contain isolated damaging winds threat and an isolated tornado threat. There is a lot of uncertainty still with the amount of strength these storms could hold, as the NWS predicts no severe storms as of this morning, while some models show some signs for an isolated tornado. Our latest video has full details on what all the computer models are showing us: youtu.be/y0RZseX9p94
The NAM model has been showing a Tornado Parameter Value of 0.7. Essentially, anywhere from a 0.6 and higher is usually the minimum value needed for a very isolated spin-up, funnel cloud, or tornado. The SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) has shown some but not too much confidence that there would be a chance of tornadic activity. The CAPE values (or instability) are only in the hundreds, which usually isn't enough for significant severe weather.
There are no short-term models, except for the NAM or NAM 3k CONUS, that have reached Friday in the model scans. So, there is still a lack of full information of what we could see.
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