*UPDATED PORTION* - After the recent month-long heatwave that North Texas experienced for a month and shattered record highs, a prolonged cold stretch is expected for much of January. NTXWC is forecasting temperatures to be around or just below average overall for the month of January, and precipitation to remain below-average this month.
Though precipitation is forecasted to remain below-average this month, this winter is shaping out to be very similar to the previous 2020-2021 winter, where North Texas saw several inches of snow, roads layered in ice, and record-breaking cold temperatures. Although I am not forecasting a snowstorm by any means, some type of snow event could occur for some North Texans between now and early-March.
The main changes in this forecast are that a pink-shaded region (>99% of 1"+ in accumulation) was added as near or greater than an inch fell in those areas on Saturday night (1/1/22). Also, the dark-blue shaded region is now an 85% chance of 1"+ in accumulation after 0.1-0.5" fell in many of those areas. Lastly, the 50% & 30% regions have shifted slightly further south due to higher confidence in some type of snow event this winter.
ORGINIAL ARTICLE (11/22/21):
SNOW OUTLOOK: Will we see 1"+ of snow at any point from now till March 2022? Here are my predictions for this Winter:
(Simple Explanation): Snow is less likely to fall this winter due to the La Nina pattern that we are in. This means overall above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. Overall, snow is less likely to fall across NTX this year in comparison to last year.
(Detailed Explanation): February of 2021 brought some of the worst wintery conditions that NTX has ever seen. As you know, we just came off of a winter where we saw over a foot of snow in some areas across North Texas. Crazy enough, we were in a La Nina pattern this past winter. And guess what? This winter is we are in a La Nina pattern AGAIN!
But, does this mean we will see snow this winter? Well, the answer is complicated as snow long-term isn't easy to predict. Many factors can change the overall forecast. For example, last winter, a huge dip in the jet stream caused North Texas to experience a record-breaking cooldown across the entire state. This cooldown caused widespread rolling blackouts and below-freezing temperatures in Texas.
This forecast's "Chance of Snow" is for the probability of one inch or more of snow to fall during the winter of 2021-2022. Nearly all of DFW is in the 30% region, while Northwestern North Texas ranges from 50-80% chances. Areas like Waco, College Station, Tyler, and Corsicana are in the <10% range for snow greater than an inch.
So what does this forecast and prediction really mean? This does not mean 30% of North Texans will see snow if you live in DFW. This means you have a 3 in 10 chance of seeing 1"+ of snow this winter. That chance is overall generous, as last winter, the chances I gave were 50-60%.
The tendency of the past 30 years or so in Fort Worth, TX, is that out of the 4 times that 5"+ of snow has fallen in a single season, only one time has more than 1" of snow fallen the next season. That was from 2009-2011, where 17.1" of snow fell in 2009-2010, and 4.3" of snow fell in 2010-2011's winter.
Do I think we will see measurable snowfall in North Texas? For some of us, yes. I think Wichita Falls will see snow and areas to the north/west. Factually, Wichita Falls does average around 2.5-3.0" of snow per year. I don't see why they wouldn't get some snowfall this winter.
On the other hand, Fort Worth, TX, surprisingly averages 1.2" of snow per year. Thanks to the several one-hit snowstorms that have brought several inches (and sometimes feet!) of snow, this is why that average is inflated. There have been 4 total times in the past 50 years where 10"+ of snow has fallen in a single season in Fort Worth, TX.
So far, there has not been a single winter in the past 50 years that has not given Fort Worth at least a snowflake, but there have been 42 winters in the past 50 years in which MEASURABLE snowfall has fallen in Fort Worth. Even crazier, 27 of those 42 winters have produced over 1"+ of measurable snowfall.
So yes, snowfall is not uncommon in DFW, but it usually only occurs once a year. As of now, NTX averages about a 50-55% chance of snow per year, but this year, I do think that chance is much lower for an inch or greater of snow.
Only time will tell. Stay updated with NTXWC for the latest on Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube!
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