SNOW OUTLOOK: Will we see 1"+ of snow at any point from now until March 2022? This article will feature my predictions for this winter, which were HIGHLY accurate for the 2022 winter season!
(Simple Explanation): I do expect a couple of winter weather makers during the 2022-2023 winter season. There is a theory that we could even have a wintry weather event as early as December, however, I would cut down that theory for now as I am expecting an above-average month in December for temperatures. For now, I don't see us having a huge snowstorm (like 2020), but it's not out of the question that we see a smaller-scale "few inches" type North Texas snowstorm this winter.
(Detailed Explanation): February 2021 and February 2022 both brought North Texas nasty wintry weather events that will go down in history, especially the rolling blackouts from February 2021. February 2021 was a winter where some of North Texas saw over a FOOT of snow. February and March 2022 brought a couple of nasty ice events and still brought noticeable snow to North Texas, but not nearly as much as 2021. Crazy enough, we were in a La Nina pattern this past winter. And guess what? This winter is we are in a La Nina pattern AGAIN!
What exactly is "La Nina" mean for North Texas? All that means is that the typical trend is above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the 3-month span. This doesn't necessarily mean snow cannot happen, as proven over the past couple of winters.
But, does this mean we will see snow this winter? Well, the answer is complicated as snow long-term isn't easy to predict. Many factors can change the overall forecast. For example, in the 2021 winter, a huge dip in the jet stream caused North Texas to experience a record-breaking cooldown across the entire state of Texas. This cooldown caused widespread rolling blackouts and below-freezing temperatures in Texas.
This forecast's "Chance of Snow" is for the probability of one inch or more of snow to fall during the 2022-2023 winter season. Nearly all of DFW is in the 40% region, while Northwestern North Texas ranges from 40-90% chances. Areas like Waco, College Station, and Palestine are in the <10% chance for snow greater than an inch.
Another important aspect to this forecast, for Fort Worth specifically, is that out of the past 47 winters, 27 of them we've seen <1" of snow. That's almost 60% of the past 47 winters that we've not hit the threshold of 1"+ of snow. I do see this as a 40/60 winter for whether we see 1"+ or not in North Texas.
So what does this forecast and prediction really mean? This does not mean 40% of North Texans will see snow if you live in DFW. This means you have a 4 in 10 chance of seeing 1"+ of snow this winter. Last winter, the metroplex was in a 30% chance, so this season is a slight uptick.
An interesting statistic over the past 30 years in Fort Worth, TX, is that only 4 times have we seen 5"+ of snow in a given season. Out of those 4 times, we've seen 1"+ inches of snow the following winter. Those two instances were from 2009-2011, where 17.1" of snow fell in 2009-2010, and 4.3" of snow fell in 2010-2011's winter. Also, 2020-2022, we saw 5.0" in 2020-2021, while 2021-2022's season saw 1.7".
Do I think we will see measurable snowfall in North Texas? For some of us, yes. I think Wichita Falls will see snow and areas to the north/west. Factually, Wichita Falls does average around 2.5-3.0" of snow per year. I don't see why they wouldn't get some snowfall this winter.
On the other hand, Fort Worth, TX, surprisingly averages 1.2" of snow per year. Thanks to the several one-hit snowstorms that have brought several inches (and sometimes feet!) of snow, this is why that average is inflated. There have been 4 total times in the past 50 years where 10"+ of snow has fallen in a single season in Fort Worth, TX.
So far, there has not been a single winter in the past 50 years that has not given Fort Worth at least a snowflake, but there have been 43 winters in the past 50 years in which MEASURABLE snowfall has fallen in Fort Worth. Even crazier, 28 of those 42 winters have produced over 1"+ of measurable snowfall. This does NOT include this upcoming winter. We've already seen a trace of sleet in Fort Worth, which means this trend has continued.
Only time will tell. Stay updated with NTXWC for the latest on Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube!
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